(January 23, 2024) As the old saying goes: What goes up must come down. So is the case with the worldwide TV market. 2020 marked the beginning of a COVID-induced TV boom, where demand outpaced supply, and manufacturers were left scrambling, hamstrung by semiconductor shortages and a global supply chain crisis. Inevitably, market forces pushed TV prices higher. According to TAdviser, the final months of 2021 found consumers paying 30% more for TVs than in late 2020.
As TV prices ballooned, consumer purchasing fell. Manufacturers delivered over 210 million – yes, 210 million – TVs during 2021 but fell short of 2020 numbers by nearly 3%. It's widely believed that COVID's decline is to blame. Consumers began emerging from their homes, and government-associated subsidies were being rolled back. Combine those factors with higher prices for nearly everything on earth, and overall TV sales took a step back from the prior year. Unfortunately for retailers and manufacturers, 2022 was no better, as sales of consumer displays slipped to a five-year low, with roughly 202 million units shipped.
That brings us to 2023 when TV shipments fell yet again. According to TrendForce, data shows that shipped units stumbled another 2.1%, landing final numbers in the 197 million range. That, according to analysts, marks the worst year for TV manufacturers in nearly a decade. While supply chain issues are no longer a concern, high interest rates, a real estate bubble in China, multiple large-scale wars, and unusually weak Q4 sales are all to blame.
Current estimates suggest that shipment volumes will increase by 0.2% during 2024. While a laundry list of unknowns might influence that projection one way or another, the Paris Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024 are expected to be positive factors supporting growth.
Who is King of the Market?
Samsung Electronics remains the 500-pound gorilla in the TV space, though analysts expect the company to ship 9.8% fewer TVs (36.3 million units) this year as compared to last; the company's market share is expected to slip to 18.5%. TrendForce says that Samsung had difficulty selling mid to high-end models during 2023, emphasizing shipment declines for 8K, MiniLED, and QLED TVs. Not surprisingly, the company's QD OLEDs were a strong point, having experienced a 153% increase as compared to 2022.
LG finished 2023 in fourth place with 22.91 million units shipped. TrendForces numbers say that LG's OLED sales plummeted nearly 30% as compared to 2022, marking a massive fall from grace. Conversely, Hisense and TCL, ranking second and third, both realized healthy increases in shipped units. Lower cost models and localized production are two factors that allowed Hisense (27 million units, 12.4% increase) and TCL (26.2 million units, 16.3%) to find success.
What's In Store for 24?
As mentioned, TrendForce believes 2024 will find marginal growth in the TV segment, with total units shipped falling under the 200 million mark. And while you might assume pricing could drastically fall to spur growth, don't bet on it. Industry analyst DSCC, a display supply chain research firm, says that market indicators suggest pricing will fall but won't approach all-time lows. In other words, don't expect manufacturers to drop pricing below cash cost.
DSCC predicts that OLED TV models will experience a rebirth of success in 2024. The research firm says 2023 marked "the worst year ever" for OLED TV sales, with shipments down over 28%. LG and its W-OLED panels bore the brunt of this downturn, realizing a 32% reduction in shipments as compared to 2022. Several factors, including a predicted recovery in the premium TV market and a new agreement that finds Samsung sourcing W-OLED panels from LG, should drive plenty of market competition and attractive pricing.
DSCC doesn't paint the same pretty picture for LCD TVs, noting that more LCD production capacity might be shut down across the industry during 2024, mirroring the same (correct) prediction made for 2023. The firm also believes display glass prices will rise for a fourth year in a row – pricing for this component had fallen like a rock leading up to 2020, but rose 20% last year.
Lastly, and likely most pertinent to enthusiasts, DSCC says, "No OLED products with phosphorescent blue emitters will be sold" in 2024. Universal Display Corporation (UDC) announced it would reveal a blue emitter worthy of commercial target specs in 2022. Alas, that didn't happen. The company's red and green emitters allow for "excellent color and lifetime with high efficiency." UDC says a blue OLED emitter that matches their performance specs would "bring cost and performance benefits to all of the various product architectures in the OLED space." According to DSCC, we'll eventually see the technology hit the market, but it won't be during 2024.
Additional Reading:
- Everything You Need to Know About New TVs in 2024
- Sony Pictures Home Entertainment Celebrates Columbia Picture's 100th Anniversary with Massive Sale
- LG Says OLED Sales are Down, May Offer an OLED TV Sized Smaller than 42-Inches
- Portrait Displays Launches the C7 HDR, a High-Luminance Colorimeter That's Light on Price, Heavy on Performance
Last edited:
