Economic Woes... Ports Backlogged, Product Shortage, Price Increases

[Sonnie Parker]

This WILL NOT be a thread to start blaming anyone in particular (political wise)... your thread will be deleted if you do.

Regardless of who's fault it may be, I am beginning to get really concerned about our economy. How much longer can we last?

Everywhere... and I mean EVERYWHERE there are signs up in businesses and many other places "NOW HIRING", "HELP WANTED"... and other business owners I know telling me they can't get help... people don't want to work. They are making more sitting at home than they would if they went back to work (I thought it had ended, but apparently not in some places).

So we have one of the worst backlogs in port containers than we've ever had... and a shortage a truckers willing to go into California on top of that.

New York (CNN Business)Approximately 200,000 shipping containers remain on ships off the coast of Los Angeles on Monday as pandemic-related gridlock continues to disrupt various supply chains, according to Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles.
"We have about two weeks' worth of work sitting at anchor right now," Seroka said in an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper. His port is trying to unload and then prioritize the cargo that needs to move off the port as quickly as possible.
"There's product that needs to get out there in super-fast speed," he said. "Think about the toys, the other Christmas product, and parts and components for factories.


Biden alone can't end the supply chain crisis

The port has made some progress moving containers off the docks since President Joe Biden announced at a White House supply chain summit last week that the port would move to a 24/7 operating schedule. The port is the nation's largest in terms of container volume.

Granted some ports are not this bad, but they are still behind. We have guns sitting at the ports and can't get them due to a lack of crane workers and truck drivers.

I've never ever in my life... and know of no one alive, nor can I find anything that resembles what I'm seeing on the car dealer lots right now. No new vehicles... and unbelievably high prices on used vehicles. I can get more for my used truck than i paid for it. Not only are their computer chip shortages, but there are wiring harness shortages... and other parts as well.

And gasoline... it just keeps going up and up and up.

Restaurant owners tell me meat has gotten ridiculous... from $8-9lb for CAB steak to $15-18lb. Chicken wings of all things... from $40 a crate to $125 a crate... triple the price a year ago... some are higher than this. Groceries in general are getting crazy high.

Our guns are plentiful right now, but we did go thru some rough months... and certain ammo is still very very slim... hunting ammo for the most part. Since COVID started... we have received as many as 3 prices increases from some manufacturers on firearms... and as many as 4 price increases on ammo... and more expected as parts get harder to source, on top of parts prices continuing to go up due to steel and plastic going up.

I'm just scratching the surface here... it runs much deeper than this for sure.

I'm really beginning to wonder how much longer our economy can withstand it all.

 

[JStewart]

Everywhere... and I mean EVERYWHERE there are signs up in businesses and many other places "NOW HIRING", "HELP WANTED"... and other business owners I know telling me they can't get help... people don't want to work.

Absolutely true for my business and those around me in the Orlando area. Pay rate is not the issue. Getting anyone to apply in the first place is.

They are making more sitting at home than they would if they went back to work (I thought it had ended, but apparently not in some places).

This has to be true for some, obviously, but I believe there’s something else going on that we haven’t put our collective finger on yet. Wasn’t it 4.3 million people that just quit their jobs last month? At least in FL voluntary resignation = no unemployment benefits.

I'm really beginning to wonder how much longer our economy can withstand it all.

Scares the heck out of me. This inflation in particular. Hate to see what it’s doing to those who can least afford it.

Also in my business, swimming pool service and repair, there’s significant and ongoing shortages of whole goods and parts. In the latter part of last year I was candidly told that it was due to lack of help stateside. Then there was the extensive freeze in Texas in February that broke literally everything, wiped out any inventory and added months of back orders under good circumstances. And now products are backed up in the ports. I hope we’re at the low point now.

 

[phillihp23]

We have yet to see the worst of it…add on too it the housing market crash that will be coming as landlords fold on there properties and residents get the boot from homes.

You would think the terminals would be working around the clock to move cargo…they aren’t. They are working slower than ever. They are making money by sitting almost idle.Storage fees. They work one crane a ship when they used to work four. The Labor Unions have some deal and a lot of them aren’t working and surely getting paid somehow. Shipping lines are charging 22k-30k for a 40 foot container from china. Two years ago it cost 3k.
Companies like Costco and Walmart are paying the terminals to open and just work their cargo so now the greedy terminals want the other company’s too pay extra to move their cargo also.
Just check out the site vessel tracker and look at the west and east coast and see all the ships sitting at anchor. LA is a large port but the cargo is sitting at all the ports. It will blow your mind.

Another issue is the trains. Around 60% of cargo on the west coast is railed to the interior. The train lines don’t want to bring the train cars back to the west coast empty so they not bringing them back west to be loaded again. This would lead me to believe US exports are down as the trains aren’t being loaded to bring to the west coast to ship product out.
Since most of the rail is subsidized by the federal government, the commerce secretary should be ordering them back to the west coast so cargo can be loaded and create space for ships to discharge.

 

[ddude003]

As I understand it, and it could be conspiracy theory, that there are "new" regulations in Cali that make it impossible for some trucks to be allowed into the state for commerce... I'm not sure if they air quality laws or what... Also, it may be that a past executive order may disallow commerce from certain foreign nations because of some form of interference with our government functions... Maybe bribery of some politicians or something to do with an election... I am guessing anything from China would be barred from port entry... I am sure there are others too...

As far as the employment issue is concerned, vaccine mandates and those who refuse the vaccines are at odds... The weird thing is that todays report Initial Claims and Continuing Claims are trending downward...

It seems to me that there are several issues with our current government and infrastructure of all kinds... There seems to be much more going on that is not being reported on by the media and other things are plain and simple lies... Corruption in high places... A perfect storm so to speak... Pray and Prep... Its going to get bumpy...

 

[phillihp23]

You are correct about some of those things which are impacting LA

California Assembly Bill 5: prohibits owner operators (this affects truckers). Supreme Court declined to hear upon request.

California won’t register trucks with engines older than 2005 as of 2021.

it was a cascading effect, some couldn’t afford to buy new trucks, some bought new trucks and couldn’t make the payments. They started working as owner operators…they are provided a truck and assigned loads to carry but file as independent employee. California didn’t like that so passed law to ban owner operator and demand the truck owners enlist the drivers as employees.

 

[phillihp23]

As for Chinese goods they coming as always, just like the Chinese ships and Chinese crew members.

 

[phillihp23]

On another random note …starting January California is requiring pig farmers to provide larger spaces for pigs, Farm Animal Confinement Proposition 12. Pork prices are expected to go up 60% due to non-compliance/shortage.

 

[ddude003]

There are some that would point to increased demand... While ignoring the supply side of things... Domestic oil production has been all but stopped, natural gas lines stopped, chip shortages, and much of the "green" things not going to work out so well... You can't produce electricity without the cost of the carbon footprint to produce the devices like solar power, batteries, metals and plastics... It just does not balance out... And then there is that infrastructure thing again... The nations power grid can not withstand much new "green" things... So, when would that be fixed and at what cost? And when I say cost I am not just talking about $$$... I am talking about the cost to the environment...

As I understand it, there are 4 volcanos spewing unknown amounts of carbon into the atmosphere... How are we humans going to counter that? Ban gas lawnmowers in Cali? Some of this "green" stuff is such a joke... It is really a rich mans con game... Where is the science?

 

[Sonnie Parker]

I guess there are a lot of happy residents in California, but no way I could ever live there. Too many laws that I am just not sure are necessary. Don't care to live in a sanctuary state either... and being a gun guy... that would be enough for me not to go there. Not saying Alabama is the best, we have our share of issues, but we enjoy a lot of freedoms and it's home for me.

 

[phillihp23]

I guess there are a lot of happy residents in California, but no way I could ever live there. Too many laws that I am just not sure are necessary. Don't care to live in a sanctuary state either... and being a gun guy... that would be enough for me not to go there. Not saying Alabama is the best, we have our share of issues, but we enjoy a lot of freedoms and it's home for me.

I’d move to Wyoming if the weather wasn’t so horrid.

 

[Sonnie Parker]

Or Montana

 

[phillihp23]

There are some that would point to increased demand... While ignoring the supply side of things... Domestic oil production has been all but stopped, natural gas lines stopped, chip shortages, and much of the "green" things not going to work out so well... You can't produce electricity without the cost of the carbon footprint to produce the devices like solar power, batteries, metals and plastics... It just does not balance out... And then there is that infrastructure thing again... The nations power grid can not withstand much new "green" things... So, when would that be fixed and at what cost? And when I say cost I am not just talking about $$$... I am talking about the cost to the environment...

As I understand it, there are 4 volcanos spewing unknown amounts of carbon into the atmosphere... How are we humans going to counter that? Ban gas lawnmowers in Cali? Some of this "green" stuff is such a joke... It is really a rich mans con game... Where is the science?

I must say I will chuckle a bit when cali ends up in an almost constant state of blackout.

 

[phillihp23]

Or Montana

I’m trying too start looking where I might retire…Tennessee?

 

[JStewart]

Florida is a pretty good place to be. For the moment ....
No state income tax. Reasonable real estate and sales tax rates. Real estate prices rising, but still lower than many alternatives.
Hope our governor hangs around for a while.

 

[phillihp23]

Florida is a pretty good place to be. For the moment ....
No state income tax. Reasonable real estate and sales tax rates. Real estate prices rising, but still lower than many alternatives.
Hope our governor hangs around for a while.

Yes, but I fear the population is growing too quick ( and gators and snakes not my thing), much like Arizona. Even Utah has been seeing a spike and real estate prices are sky rocketing. Retire in about six years.

 

[JStewart]

Yes, but I fear the population is growing too quick

Yup, for the reasons I mentioned. Many of us worry about the escapees bringing the ideas that caused them to move here with them. In comparison, the gators are much less of a worry.
Nashville area inTN has exploded. We have land and family in KY about an hour and 1/2 north of there. To bad KY is not very favorable tax wise. It makes moving there a difficult decision.
Have a son in Salt Lake and he said prices have recently skyrocketed from all the folks leaving CA, of which he was one.

 

[ddude003]

Another million illegals to add to our already 25 to 35 million illegals... Not sure I would call that growth...

The real problem is that our own government has been and is trying to kill us using our own tax payer monies... Oh, can you say Color Revolution? We (the See-Eye-Hay) has done that in many countries around the world already... Why not here too?

BOMBSHELL: National Institutes of Health Admits Fauci Lied About Gain-Of-Function Funding in Wuhan.
This is being widely reported... Including: https://thenationalpulse.com/news/nih-admits-funded-wuhan-gof-reserarch

So now what??? It has become evident that the Declaration of Independence (1776) needs rereading and The Tree of Liberty needs watering...

 

[Sonnie Parker]

Tennessee is nice... we like going to the Smokey Mountains... although I'm not sure I'd want to live there all the time. Gotta deal with bears up there in the summer, unless of course you are in a residential neighborhood in the middle of a city, but I'd want to live in the country on the mountainside. Maybe find a place just outside the mountains... an hour away or so... where you aren't dealing with tourist every time you go to a store or restaurant and having to wait in line all the time.

Alabama is nice up around the Talladega National Forrest... mountains around there too. It's mostly flat down in lower Alabama where we are. If you like to hunt... we are loaded with whitetails here... and turkey all over the place. Plenty of wild hogs that are also hunted regularly.

North Carolina is nice... mountains up there too.

I like the northwest panhandle of Florida... not so much different than where we live in southeast Alabama unless you get down on the coast where you have to deal with a lot of tourism again... and some gators.

 

[Sonnie Parker]

We've had two families come in and visit our gun store not so long ago that moved to Alabama from California. They did not know each other, but both said they were fed up with all the nonsense in CA. I'm not surprised people are leaving, but I suspect there are millennials that still want to move there and do... so I wonder if as many that are leaving are being replaced. Wish I could see the future of CA in 50 years.

 

[Todd Anderson]

It's really hard to grapple with the cost increases we're seeing right now. It's such an interesting mixture of supply and demand. Everything is so much more expensive. I brokered the deal of a lifetime on a new Expedition Max during April 2020... dealers were desperate. Feel lucky... no way I could pull that off now.

The Amazons and Walmarts of the world, from what I've read, are paying premiums to gain access to ships... even going as far as to charter their own. That is bad news for smaller retailer shops.

I definitely *hope* our country reacts to this by making sure we have production capabilities for essential goods and drugs. You can see how this might crush the US in a different type of crisis scenario.

 

[Michael Scott]

I hear you about the cars Todd. we lucked out and retired our 15 year old corolla back in last 2019 and we got a 2019 model for a really nice price. Dealers were begging us to take the 2019 models over the 2020 models due to excess stock. Now, I'm not sure we could have afforded the cost corollas are going for. Even if you DO get an MSRP car you have to wait a year for them to supply it. USED prices are 20% over MSRP. It's a bizarre scenario that was created due to mishandlings of a pandemic, politics (on both sides) and general insanity and fear. buckle up, cuz it's gonna get worse

 

[tripplej]

While in the car today, I just heard on the radio about a proposed "unrealized" capital gains tax that is being pushed.

Anybody know about this and what this means if passed? i saw this article about it.

 

[Sonnie Parker]

I hear you about the cars Todd. we lucked out and retired our 15 year old corolla back in last 2019 and we got a 2019 model for a really nice price. Dealers were begging us to take the 2019 models over the 2020 models due to excess stock. Now, I'm not sure we could have afforded the cost corollas are going for. Even if you DO get an MSRP car you have to wait a year for them to supply it. USED prices are 20% over MSRP. It's a bizarre scenario that was created due to mishandlings of a pandemic, politics (on both sides) and general insanity and fear. buckle up, cuz it's gonna get worse

I'd say if you have a good ride... better keep it... as they are none that are going to be cheap anytime soon. If you do buy right now, then you won't have any choice but to keep it, cause you'll be super upside down on it in a year or two when the dust settles.

While in the car today, I just heard on the radio about a proposed "unrealized" capital gains tax that is being pushed.

Anybody know about this and what this means if passed? i saw this article about it.

It's intended for billionaires only... and the report is really nothing more than a scare tactic for everyone else at this particular time. Typical political reporting. Not saying it won't eventually come true, but it's unlikely in my opinion and very unknown at this point in time... only unwarranted speculation for the most part.

 

[tripplej]

yeah, radio dj always make it sound so alarming to get listeners. lol.. From their perspective, it is target not only to billionaires but to everybody since once you tax the rich, the government can't stop taxing the rest of us. lol.

Guess we shall see if and when this happens and how it is done.

 

[ddude003]

I think that this kind of Political slight of hand along with Media disinformation is a distraction from the Insider Trading many politicians and even the Heads of the FED are plainly guilty of... There is so much in your face corruption...

Taxing Unrealized Gains is an interesting concept... Taxing something you don't actually have... And will you get to write off or be refunded your unrealized losses? I think not... Is this a form of new math for the politically retarded?